Fed Is Behind the Curve

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Money Market Guru — Fed Is Behind the Curve — Senior Federal Reserve officials have commented recently on how undesirable it would be if the Donald Trump administration implemented expansionary fiscal policy right now.

This new view is inconsistent with the Fed’s prior position that the labor market is not tight and that meaningful room remains for additional hiring. The Fed argued for some time that there still was plenty of slack in the labor market — the central bank’s primary justification for raising interest rates only very slowly over an extended period. If the Fed really believes that there is a lot of room for incremental hiring and that inflation will remain at bay for another two years, a more stimulative fiscal policy should be welcomed, not discouraged.

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Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen Said More Interest-Rate Increases

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Gold Silver Reports — Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said more interest-rate increases will be appropriate if the U.S. economy meets the central bank’s outlook of gradually rising inflation and tightening labor markets.

“At our upcoming meetings, the committee will evaluate whether employment and inflation are continuing to evolve in line with these expectations, in which case a further adjustment of the federal funds rate would likely be appropriate,” she told the Senate Banking Committee in prepared remarks Tuesday.

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India Monthly Oil Demand Fell

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India’s monthly oil demand fell. — the most since May 2003 as the government’s crackdown on high-value currency notes continued to reverberate through the country’s $2 trillion economy.

Fuel consumption fell 4.5 percent to 15.5 million tons in January from 16.2 million tons a year ago, the Oil Ministry’s Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell said Friday. Diesel use, which accounts for about 40 percent of total fuel demand in India, dropped 7.8 percent to 5.8 million tons, the biggest decline since September. Gasoline consumption fell the most since June.

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Sugar Traders are Bracing for a Wild Ride

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Sugar Traders are Bracing for a Wild Ride. — While most analysts forecast a return to surplus in the 2017-18 season that starts in October, many are considering “best case scenarios,” Michael Gelchie, a trading director at Sucres et Denrees SA, or Sucden, said at the Dubai Sugar Conference on Sunday. With global stockpiles forecast to fall to their lowest since 2011-12, there’s little room for weather disruptions that could hurt crops.

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