Money Market Guru — As per latest release from United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), an outbreak of Avian Influenza (AI) in February 2017 is forecasted to cause soybean imports to drop slightly in MY2016/17 before recovering in MY2017/18.
Soybean consumption is forecast to recover slightly in MY2017/18 to 2.41 million tons. MY2016/17 soybean consumption is forecast to drop to 2.38 million tons based on import and animal production trends. MY2015/16 soybean consumption is lowered to 2.41 million tons based on official soybean meal production statistics. Almost all soybean demand is supplied by imports, and MY2017/18 and MY2016/17 imports are forecasted at 2.4 million tons and 2.35 million tons accordingly.
MY2017/18 soybean meal consumption is forecast to increase slightly to 1.56 million on recovering feed demand. MY2016/17 soybean meal consumption is forecast to drop to 1.53 million tons as poultry production is forecast to decline slightly in 2017 due to AI outbreaks. Pork production is forecast to remain stable in 2017 and 2018. Swine and poultry production account for almost 90 percent of total feed consumption.
Soybean oil consumption is forecast to remain flat in MY2017/18 at 338,000 tons. Taiwans population has stabilized at around 23 million and is not expected to grow, limiting potential growth for vegetable oil in Taiwan. Forecast MY2016/17 soybean oil consumption is lowered to 338,000 tons based on forecasted supply and the renewed competitiveness of imported palm oil. Trade in soybean oil and meal is minimal. — Money Market